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EWMA volatility · Julia
function ewma_vol(close::Vector{Float64})
    r = close[2:end] ./ close[1:end-1] .- 1
    v = r[1]^2
    for x in r[2:end]; v = 0.94v + 0.06x^2; end
    return sqrt(v * 252) * 100
end
Correct · 12.451%
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Your signal only sees the past, each decision earns the next day’s move minus costs, and the end of the history is held out. Read the out-of-sample column before believing anything.

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out of sample
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